There have been 56 seasons of F1 before 2006. Two seasons comprised only
six events and can be ignored (1950 & 1955; Indy 500s ignored in all years).

In 39 of the remaining 54 seasons whoever was leading the championship
with 6 events remaining, went on to win the title (72.2%). In the other
15 seasons, the leader with 6 events remaining was overtaken and lost
the title (27.8%).

That's roughly 75-25, or 3-1 in favour of Alonso.

However, in the 15 seasons where the leader went on to lose the title,
in only four seasons was the lead with 6 events remaining larger than
the current 11 points.

In 1964 Jim Clark (21) led Graham Hill (20) by a single point, but the
eventual WDC (John Surtees) was trailing in eighth place with only six
points - a gap of 15 points. Surtees won the title by a single point.

In 1976 Niki Lauda (61) led Jody Scheckter (36) by 25 points. Eventual
champion (James Hunt, 35) was a further point behind Scheckter. Once
again the title was decided by a single point.

In 1981 Carlos Reutemann (43) led Nelson Piquet (26) by 17 points. For
a third time the title was decided by a single point.

In 1982 Didier Pironi (35) led John Watson (30) by five points, but
eventual champion (Keke Rosberg, 21) was in fourth place, 14 points
behind Pironi.

As we know, in 1976 Lauda was badly injured and missed two of the
remaining events. Similarly, in 1982 Pironi was badly injured in the
second of the remaining events and never drove in F1 again.

In 1964 there had only been four events before the start of the last
six. This isn't really comparable with more recent seasons, when 10
or 11 races have been run before the final six events commence.

Only once - in 1981 - has the WDC leader with six events left to run
contrived to lose the title without some severe disruption taking place.

On that basis, MS' chances are about one in 54 (1.8%).

I think that most F1 "experts" are still puzzled how Reutemann managed
to lose the 1981 title to Piquet.

--

Brian Lawrence
Brian_W_Lawrence (AT) msn (DOT) com
Wantage, Oxfordshire, UK

Brian Lawrence wrote:

Hmm. How can we factor in modern car reliability, or the "special
relationship" between Ferrari and the FIA... <grin>

Paul

"Brian Lawrence" <Brian_W_LawrenceREMTHIS (AT) msn (DOT) com> wrote

Very interesting. The post 2003 change to the points scoring method must
also factor in to this I think. The current scoring method for the top 8
finishers imposes a lower penalty for not winning a race than the previous
method of scoring only the top 6. This reduces MS's chances of clawing back
the gap even further. Yippee!!!

Had the previous scoring system remained the same all the way back to the
50's or were there further changes over the years?

Personally I think there should be one final change to the scoring system.
However many points you accumulate in each race you lose two of them if
you're a cheating German bastard. I can't see it being introduced though.
--
Dave Baker
www.pumaracing.co.uk
Usenet - a collection of people who only open their mouth to change feet.

"Dave Baker" <DaveBaker (AT) nowhere (DOT) com> wrote:

[snip]

1950-59 8 - 6 - 4 - 3 - 2 (plus one point for the fastest lap)

1960 8 - 6 - 4 - 3 - 2 - 1

1961-90 9 - 6 - 4 - 3 - 2 - 1 [only a certain number of scores counted]

1991-2002 10 - 6 - 4 - 3 - 2 - 1 [all races counted]

2003- 10 - 8 - 6 - 5 - 4 - 3 - 2 - 1

Until 1957 driver's sharing a car shared the points (including the fastest
lap point).

Between 1950 and 1990 only a certain number of points-scores were counted
towards the championship. This varied depending on the number of races in
the season.

1950-53 best four
1954-57/59 best five
1958/60 best six

1961/62/66 best five
1963/64/65 best six

1967-78 season divided into two parts, the worst result in each part was
discarded. If the season included an odd number of races the first
part had one more race than the second part.

1979 best four results in each half-season
1980 best five " " "

1981-90 best 11 results in season

1991- all results counted

--

Brian

"Brian Lawrence" <Brian_W_LawrenceREMTHIS (AT) msn (DOT) com> wrote

Struth. What a veritable mine of information you are. Many thanks.
--
Dave Baker
www.pumaracing.co.uk
Usenet - a collection of people who only open their mouth to change feet.

"Brian Lawrence" <Brian_W_LawrenceREMTHIS (AT) msn (DOT) com> writes:

Here "until" means "through"; drivers were credited with shared points for shared drives in 1957.

Shared points for shared fastest lap continued as long as fastest lap
counted for anything, that is through 1959 - when Moss and McLaren
earned a half-point each at the British GP. It *never* had anything to
do with sharing a car, only with setting indistinguishable times. (The
British GP was, in 1954, apparently only timed to the nearest second,
and seven drivers shared fastest lap at 1 min 50 sec, for 1/7 of a
point each.)

--
Mark Jackson - http://www.alumni.caltech.edu/~mjackson
If you don't apply it when it's inconvenient
it's not a rule of law. - Admiral John Hutson

"Mark Jackson" <mjackson (AT) alumni (DOT) caltech.edu> wrote:

Thanks Mark, that is absolutely correct. What I wrote was clearly rubbish.

--

Brian

"Brian Lawrence" <Brian_W_LawrenceREMTHIS (AT) msn (DOT) com> writes:
Good heavens, Brian, what you contribute here is *never* rubbish. Say,
rather, that that bit was "subject to incorrect interpretation." :-)

--
Mark Jackson - http://www.alumni.caltech.edu/~mjackson
If you don't apply it when it's inconvenient
it's not a rule of law. - Admiral John Hutson

Taking another look at the situation.

Alonso leads MS by 10 points with five events left.

In 56 previous seasons:

In 40 the WDC leader with five races left won the championship (71.4%).

In 16 the WDC leader was caught (28.6%)

In those 16 seasons, the eventual champion trailed by more than 10 points
on only four occasions (7.1%):

1964 Clark (30), Surtees (10) lead 20
1976 Lauda (61), Hunt (38) 23
1982 Pironi (39), Rosberg (23) 16
1997 Schumacher (66), Villeneuve (55) 11

The last three are all unusual, with unexpected events interfering. 1964 was
a more normal season, however, the situation given above was after only five
races, which doesn't make for a good comparison with 2006.

--

Brian

Brian Lawrence wrote:

Other than the obvious title-deciding nerf, what unusual events
intervened in 1997? Didn't Villeneuve take the title on merit, scoring
more points that Michael even before Michael was thrown out of the
championship?

Paul